By According to a survey by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are expected to have fallen in the previous week, as reported by the Department of Energy. The average of estimates from seven analysts and traders suggests a decline of 2 million barrels for the week ended Aug. 25. Out of the forecasters, six are predicting a decrease, while one expects a week-on-week increase. Expectations range from a decrease of 4 million barrels to an increase of 2 million barrels.
Gasoline Inventories Expected to Decrease
Analysts predict that gasoline inventories will fall by 1.3 million barrels compared to the previous week. Estimates range from a decrease of 2.6 million barrels to an increase of 1.6 million barrels.
Decrease in Distillates Stocks Anticipated
Stocks of distillates, mainly diesel fuel, are expected to decrease by 500,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1.6 million barrels.
Rise in Refinery Use
Refinery use is likely to have climbed by 0.2 percentage point from the previous week to reach 94.7%. Forecasts range from a decrease of 0.3 percentage point to an increase of 0.5 percentage point. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.
API Data
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported its own data for the week, disclosing an 11.5-million-barrel decrease in crude supplies, a 1.4-million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks, and a 2.5-million-barrel increase in diesel inventories, according to a source.
Crude Inventory Forecast:
- Confluence Investment Management: -3 million barrels
- DTN: -2.8 million barrels
- Excel Futures: -1.4 million barrels
- Spartan Capital Securities: -0.8 million barrels
- Mizuho: +2 million barrels
- Price Futures Group: -4 million barrels
- Tradition Energy: -4 million barrels
- Average Forecast: -2 million barrels
Gasoline Inventory Forecast:
- Confluence Investment Management: -1.5 million barrels
- DTN: -1.2 million barrels
- Excel Futures: +1.6 million barrels
- Spartan Capital Securities: -2.6 million barrels
- Mizuho: -1 million barrel
- Price Futures Group: -2 million barrels
- Tradition Energy: -2.5 million barrels
- Average Forecast: -1.3 million barrels
Distillates Stock Forecast:
- Confluence Investment Management: -1 million barrels
- DTN: +1.6 million barrels
- Excel Futures: +1.2 million barrels
- Spartan Capital Securities: N/F (no forecast)
- Mizuho: -1 million barrel
- Price Futures Group: -3 million barrels
- Tradition Energy: -2.5 million barrels
- Average Forecast: -0.5 million barrels
Refinery Use Forecast:
- Confluence Investment Management: +0.5 percentage point
- DTN: -0.3 percentage point
- Excel Futures: -0.3 percentage point
- Spartan Capital Securities: N/F (no forecast)
- Mizuho: +0.5 percentage point
- Price Futures Group: +0.5 percentage point
- Tradition Energy: N/F (no forecast)
- Average Forecast: +0.2 percentage point
Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is in percentage points.
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