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U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles Expected to Decline


According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. crude-oil stockpiles are projected to have fallen from the previous week. The Department of Energy will release the data on Wednesday, which is eagerly anticipated by analysts and traders.

Decrease in Crude-Oil Stockpiles

Eight analysts and traders were surveyed, and on average, they estimated that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles would have decreased by 1.8 million barrels for the week ending July 14. The majority of forecasters, seven out of eight, predicted a decline, while only one forecasted an increase. Expectations ranged from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 200,000 barrels.

Key Factors Influencing Forecasts

One reason for the anticipated decrease in stockpiles is likely the conclusion of the Department of Energy’s process of selling crude oil from the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to the commercial side. A preliminary report indicated no change in the SPR last week, which remained at a historically low level of 347 million barrels.

Upcoming Release of Data

The inventory data from the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration is scheduled to be released on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. ET. This data is closely monitored by industry professionals and is expected to provide valuable insights into crude-oil stockpiles in the United States.

Gasoline Inventories

Gasoline inventories are projected to experience a decline of approximately 1.1 million barrels compared to the previous week, as analyzed by industry experts. Forecasts provided a range of expectations, varying from a decrease of 2.5 million barrels to an increase of 1.5 million barrels.

Distillate Stocks

Distillate stocks, predominantly consisting of diesel fuel, are anticipated to witness an increase of roughly 200,000 barrels from the prior week. Forecasts suggest that distillate stocks could decrease by 2.5 million barrels or rise by 2.4 million barrels.

Refinery Utilization

Refinery utilization rates are expected to have slightly decreased by 0.1 percentage point from the preceding week, reaching approximately 93.6%. Forecasts indicate the potential for a decline of 1.1 percentage points or an increase of 0.6 percentage point. It is important to note that two analysts abstained from making a forecast.

Analyst Forecasts

Below is a compilation of predictions from various analysts regarding crude oil, gasoline, distillates, and refinery utilization. The figures represent changes in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is measured in percentage points.

| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |——————————-|——-|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -2.8 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | | Commodity Research Group | -1.9 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Management | -2.5 | -1.5 | 1 | 0.5 | | Excel Futures | -1.6 | -2.3 | -1.2 | -1.1 | | Spartan Capital Securities | -0.9 | -1.7 | 2.4 | n/f | | Price Futures Group | -3 | -2 | 1 | unch | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -2 | -2.5 | -1.2 | 0.3 | | Tradition Energy | 0.2 | -0.4 | -2.5 | n/f | | AVERAGE | -1.8 | -1.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 |

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Note: Volumes are represented in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is measured in percentage points.

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