February’s Economic Forecast

February’s Busy Week Ahead

This week, investors will be closely monitoring both February jobs data and the final stretch of fourth-quarter earnings season.

February Jobs Report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to report February employment figures on Friday. Economists anticipate a gain of 200,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 3.7%. January’s robust job growth added 353,000 jobs, exceeding expectations.

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

Following this, Wednesday will see the release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The consensus forecast predicts 8.9 million job openings as of the last business day in January, slightly lower from December.

Earnings Reports to Watch

Earnings reports from GitLab on Monday, Target and CrowdStrike Holdings on Tuesday, and Brown-Forman and Campbell Soup on Wednesday will be in the spotlight. Thursday will feature results from Broadcom, Costco Wholesale, and Kroger.

Other Economic Data

Key economic highlights include the Institute for Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index for February on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s second Beige Book of 2024 on Wednesday.

European Central Bank Decision

The week will wrap up with the European Central Bank’s announcement regarding its monetary policy decision on Thursday.

Monday 3/4

• GitLab: Fourth-quarter fiscal-2024 results to be announced.

Tuesday 3/5

• CrowdStrike Holdings, Ross Stores, and Target are set to report earnings.
• The Institute for Supply Management releases its Services Purchasing Managers’ Index for February, with a consensus estimate of 52.5.

Wednesday 3/6

• Abercrombie & Fitch, Brown-Forman, and Campbell Soup will announce quarterly results.
• The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey.
• The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book for the second time this year.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Testifies Before Congress

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify before the House Financial Services Committee as part of the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. Following this, Powell will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Thursday.

Economic Calendar for the Week

ADP will release its National Employment report for February. Expectations point to an increase of 150,000 in private-sector employment, continuing the trend from January.

Thursday 3/7

• Broadcom, Burlington Stores, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, Marvell Technology, and MongoDB will announce their earnings.

• The European Central Bank is expected to announce its monetary policy decision, with forecasts leaning towards no change in the key short-term interest rate.

• The Federal Reserve will release the Financial Accounts of the U.S., featuring household net worth data for the fourth quarter. Household net worth is anticipated to have climbed, potentially reaching a new peak.

Friday 3/8

• The BLS will unveil the jobs report for February. Projections suggest an increase of 200,000 in nonfarm payrolls, while the unemployment rate is predicted to hold steady at 3.7%.

Overall, the economic landscape is showing signs of growth and stability as various reports and decisions are disclosed.