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Bond Yields Rise as Solid U.S. Economic Data Continues


What’s Happening

  • The yield on the 2-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD02Y rose by 3.8 basis points to reach 5.05%. Yields move in the opposite direction to prices.
  • The yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y increased by 2.2 basis points, reaching 4.32%.
  • The yield on the 30-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD30Y also rose by 1.8 basis points to 4.4%.

What’s Driving Markets

  • Thursday’s reports revealed a stronger-than-expected rise in retail sales, mainly due to gasoline sales. Additionally, producer price data matched expectations. Mizuho economists suggest that inflation-adjusted consumption is currently running at a 3.5% annual rate, indicating the likelihood of third-quarter GDP exceeding 2.5%.
  • On Friday, the economic calendar includes the release of the Empire State manufacturing index, industrial production data, and the preliminary numbers from the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index.
  • Furthermore, the United Auto Workers’ strike, which has commenced at major U.S. auto plants, may raise concerns about wage growth and its potential impact on inflation.
  • Looking ahead, the Federal Open Market Committee decision next week will be crucial. Although a rate hike is highly unlikely, the central bank will update its economic and rate forecasts.

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