By by Dan Molinski
Overview
The Energy Department is set to release data on Wednesday regarding U.S. crude-oil stockpiles. According to a survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, analysts and traders forecast a decrease in stockpiles for the week ending September 8. Gasoline inventories are also expected to fall, while stocks of distillates are projected to increase.
Crude-Oil Stockpiles
The average estimate from nine analysts and traders suggests that U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles will decline by 1.9 million barrels. Eight of the forecasters predict a decrease, while one anticipates an increase in stockpiles. Expectations range from a decrease of 4.4 million barrels to an increase of 1.3 million barrels.
Gasoline Inventories
Analysts expect gasoline inventories to decrease by 300,000 barrels compared to the previous week. Estimates vary, ranging from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1.6 million barrels.
Distillate Stocks
Forecasts indicate that stocks of distillates, primarily diesel fuel, will increase by 400,000 barrels from the previous week. Predictions range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 2.6 million barrels.
The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release the highly anticipated inventory data on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
Refinery Use Likely to See a Minor Decline
According to analysts, refinery use is expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points from the previous week, settling at 92.9%. Forecasts range from a 1 percentage point decrease to an 0.8 percentage point increase. Two analysts did not provide a forecast.
Data from the American Petroleum Institute
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, has reported its data for the week. The data shows a 1.2 million-barrel increase in crude supplies, a 4.2 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks, and a 2.6 million-barrel increase in diesel inventories.
Forecasted Numbers
Below are the forecasted numbers from different analysts regarding various aspects of the oil industry.
| Analyst | Crude | Gasoline | Distillates | Refinery Use | |—————————-|——-|———-|————-|————–| | Again Capital | -1.6 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | | Commodity Research Group | -4.4 | -0.7 | 1.3 | -0.6 | | Confluence Investment Mgmt | -2.5 | -1 | 1.5 | -1 | | DTN | -1.5 | 1.6 | -0.5 | -0.5 | | Excel Futures | -2.5 | 1.1 | 1.8 | -0.8 | | Spartan Capital Securities | 1.3 | -1.5 | 1.1 | n/f | | Price Futures Group | -3 | -3 | -3 | 0.5 | | Ritterbusch and Associates | -1.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | | Tradition Energy | -1.5 | -1 | -3 | n/f | | AVERAGE | -1.9 | -0.3 | 0.4 | -0.2 |
n/f = no forecast
unch = unchanged
Note: Numbers are in millions of barrels, except for refinery use, which is in percentage points.
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